Thrux Library
Trading Guide: Crypto & Prediction Markets
What You'll Learn
This Trading Lab is designed to take you from zero knowledge to understanding the mechanics of crypto trading and prediction markets. We cover:
- Cryptocurrency Trading - How exchanges work, order types, reading charts
- Prediction Markets - Kalshi, Polymarket, and how event contracts work
- Technical Analysis - Basic indicators, support/resistance, patterns
- Risk Management - Position sizing, stop losses, portfolio theory
- Market Psychology - Why markets move, common biases, FOMO/FUD
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
Market Sentiment
Start Here: The Basics
What is Cryptocurrency?
Digital money that uses cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies, crypto operates on decentralized networks using blockchain technology. The key innovation: no central authority controls it.
What are Prediction Markets?
Markets where you can bet on future events. Unlike sports betting, these markets aggregate information from traders to predict real-world outcomes - elections, economic indicators, company decisions. Platforms like Kalshi (regulated in US) and Polymarket (decentralized) let you trade on these outcomes.
Day Trading vs Investing
Day trading involves buying and selling within the same day, trying to profit from small price movements. It's high-risk, requires constant attention, and most day traders lose money. Investing is longer-term, focusing on fundamental value. For beginners, investing typically makes more sense than day trading.
Key Concepts You Need to Know
1. Volatility
Crypto is extremely volatile. Bitcoin can move 10-20% in a day. This creates opportunities but also massive risk.
2. Liquidity
How easily you can buy/sell without moving the price. Bitcoin and Ethereum are liquid. Small altcoins often aren't.
3. Market Cap
Total value of all coins in circulation. Bitcoin's market cap is over $1 trillion. Smaller caps = higher risk/reward.
4. Leverage
Borrowing money to trade larger positions. 10x leverage means a 10% move wipes you out. Extremely dangerous for beginners.
5. Gas Fees
Transaction costs on blockchains. Ethereum gas can be $5-100+ per transaction during busy times.
Quick Start Guides
Crypto Trading 101
Exchanges, wallets, your first trade, common mistakes
Prediction Markets Guide
How Kalshi and Polymarket work, making your first prediction
Live Dashboard
Real-time prices, charts, and market indicators
Trading Strategies
DCA, swing trading, arbitrage, and risk management
Resources & Next Steps
Recommended Learning Path
- Read through Crypto Basics (1-2 hours)
- Set up a practice account on a major exchange
- Paper trade for at least 2 weeks before using real money
- Start small - $100 or less for your first real trades
- Focus on Bitcoin/Ethereum initially, avoid obscure altcoins
Tools We'll Cover
- TradingView - Professional charting
- CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap - Market data
- DeFi Pulse - Decentralized finance metrics
- Glassnode - On-chain analytics
- Fear & Greed Index - Market sentiment